Pot odds vs. equity: the price and the probability

The threshold comes from the price

If there are 120 chips in the pot and you must call 40, the break-even threshold is 25%. That figure depends on the price alone. It does not tell you how strong your cards are.

Equity comes from the model of outcomes

Your equity depends on the hands and runouts you consider possible. A hand’s apparent strength is not enough; the opponent’s range matters.

When equity is 30% in a final-call scenario with no ties or rake, the call earns 8 chips in expectation. When it is 20%, the same call loses 8.

EV = q × 120 − (1 − q) × 40

Ask two separate questions

First: what probability would justify this price? Second: what probability does the evidence support? Keeping those questions separate makes it easier to find errors.

Use the calculator to explore the threshold, then practice estimating or deriving probabilities in the drills.