Poker mathematics
A concise reference for the mathematics behind the decisions.
Pot odds: price a call correctly ↗
Convert a call price into break-even equity, with clear pot definitions and worked examples.
Expected value is a decision rule, not a prediction ↗
Understand poker expected value, sunk costs, bluffing and why a good decision can lose.
Card probability without replacement ↗
Calculate outs exactly using complementary events, conditional probabilities and small sample spaces.
Bayesian inference at the poker table ↗
Update a prior range from observed betting behaviour using Bayes’ rule and base rates.